MyDD :: Review Journal: Clinton up 9!

Review Journal: Clinton up 9!

by world dictator, Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:02:36 PM EST

Jon Ralston just sent out an email saying the new Las Vegas Review Journal poll set to be released later shows Clinton up by 9. Sorry I don't have the exact numbers just the breaking news Jon Ralston is passing on. Obama is in second place though.

For what its worth the LVRJ has Romney up by 15.

Tags: Nevada, caucus, Review Journal, primary, 2008, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards (all tags)

Permalink :: 44 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

Good News for Her! But, I don't trust these polls too much now and especially for these idiotic caucuses.

And, what about the new ruling? How will that impact the outcome?

Nonetheless, yay for Hillary!!

by American1989 on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:03:46 PM EST

Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

Are they planning to use the slot machines instead of electronic voting machines in Las Vegas during the caucuses there.....kgnuck gnuck gnyuck!

by enthusiast on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:32:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

Seriously, though, I do think Obama has torpedoed his own campaign this week, with some verbal gaffes, and that might help explain the HRC surge in NV.

by enthusiast on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:34:30 PM EST
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Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

I don't like polls. I'm going to wait until caucus night. Remember NH.

by lonnette33 on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:07:59 PM EST

Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (2.00 / 1)

I agree. Polling is wholly unreliable in Nevada because there is no prior history to use as your model. The caucus has traditional been after the nomination was decided and never featured the at large districts.

by world dictator on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:09:13 PM EST

Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

What is your read, wd? What do you see as far as supporter groups. What is the word on the street? I think Hillary is going to win NV based on her previous strength there, not based on this one poll.

by georgep on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:21:00 PM EST
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Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

The Clinton campaign is focused on using their ground game to win this caucus. Desmoulins(sp) assessment of them going after Hispanics is spot on. Whoever says GOTV is "weird" in Nevada has a screw lose. Ground game operations win in Nevada, like I suspect they do most other places.

But I think Clinton still faces an uphill battle considering this is a caucus and Obama has the culinary union's endorsement.

by world dictator on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:39:38 PM EST
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Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

What's the record of this poll? Is it as reliable as the DMR?

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:09:24 PM EST

Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

What is the previous predictive record of the LV Journal? I know they have a terible endorsement record, which makes their endorsement of Obama the probably more valuable "contribution" to Hillary (couple with a strong rebuke and mock from the Las Vegas Sun and their expected Hillary endorsement tomorrow.

Desmoulins told us in a diary yesterday that he is getting numerous GOTV phone calls from the Hillary camp over the last 48 hrs., none from the Obama camp. Also, he has seen the Clinton team blanket his mixed (strong part Hispanic)neighborhood with Spanish-language fliers, nothing from Obama. I think Clinton may win NV, and if she does it appears that she once again outhustled and outorganized Obama (like in NH.)

Caution is the word here, but if Clinton can win NV she'll be in good shape moving forward, and might just wrestle South Carolina from Obama.

by georgep on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:11:10 PM EST

Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

There will be many more poll's for NV and I predict they will be all over the place.

Latest Rasmussen for SC:

On the Democratic side (Jan 16, 571 Dem LV), Obama has extended his lead over Clinton in the Rasmussen survey to 13 points from 5 points last week:

Democrats
Obama 44 (+6 vs. last poll Jan 13)
Clinton 31 (-2)
Edwards 15 (-2)

Obama leads by 9.7% in the updated RCP Average for South Carolina.

mSANBC mCcLATCHEY POLL:
Obama 40
Clinton 31

Clinton may very well win the NV cAUCUSES, BUT SHE HAS LOST THE AA VOTE AND WITH EDWARDS IN THE RACE, OBAMA will win SC.

by BDM on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:46:27 PM EST
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Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

Michael Whoulley- silent as a suppressed fart, but deadlier. :D

by killjoy on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 06:04:55 PM EST
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Romney makes sense (none / 0)

Are there not a lot of Mormans in NV? Reid is Morman isn't he? I suspect being a Morman is no big deal or perhaps a plus even.

As for Clinton up 9? I'll cross my fingers. The weighted polling places on the strip should help Obama bigtime. Edwards has added events and his campaign thinks they will do "well" (although I suspect for Edwards "well" these days means a close third).

The real answer here here who knows because the turnout model is impossible to predict.

by dpANDREWS on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:17:49 PM EST

Re: Romney makes sense (2.00 / 1)

Being a Mormon is a major boost in Nevada, particularly among Republicans. There are a lot of politically active mormons in Nevada. And when I say a lot I mean in the sense that they compromise a political machine. More importantly, they tend to vote republican and they tend to vote their own. Remember, Nevada is right next to Utah. There are a lot of Mormons that relocated from Utah to Nevada. In fact the Nevada Utah border is nearly "invisible" in some areas.

Mesquite,Nevada is a small community about an hour outside of Las Vegas that is almost entirely Mormon. St George Utah is about 2.5 hours away

Harry Reid is a mormon and the Governor Jim Gibbons is a mormon as well.

There are some people who are "tired of the mormons" but those people are in the minority and not really active primary voters.

by world dictator on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:31:16 PM EST
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Re: Romney makes sense (2.00 / 1)

Are there not a lot of Mormans in NV?

Yes.

Reid is Morman isn't he?

Yes.

I suspect being a Morman is no big deal or perhaps a plus even.

An advantage in NV, UT, AZ and probably even CA.

by LakersFan on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:37:41 PM EST
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Re: Romney makes sense (2.00 / 1)

And Idaho!

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:40:58 PM EST
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Re: Romney makes sense (none / 0)

Yup. I remembered ID after I posted that. Maybe CO too?

by LakersFan on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:44:28 PM EST
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Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

Sounds like Clinton moves into the frontrunner position in Nevada. The Reid machine is formidable and Hillary is making a dent with her hard campaigning.

Congrats to HRC.

Tough pill for us obama supporters,tho.

by hawkjt on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:23:53 PM EST

Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

Hell, at least you know your man is young enough that he could run for President in the next 5 or 6 election cycles - bleep - he could be elected President in 2028 and still be younger than McCain!

by enthusiast on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:35:52 PM EST
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Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (2.00 / 1)

There have been a lot of problems with Union Reps telling people they have to vote for Obama or not be able to caucus. The comments section of the Las Vegas Sun article on it has numerous people talking about it and some telling their own stories about what happened to them.

Maybe word is getting around and it's hurting Obama.

"I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell." Harry S Truman

by Tennessean on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:37:03 PM EST

Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

We'll see. If this is an isolated incident it probably won't have much effect. If it's more widespread it could cause a backlash. In any case while Obama is virtually certain to win Culinary workers, I expect both Clinton and Edwards will get a healthy chunk of them.

by Christopher Lib on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:18:57 PM EST
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Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

Big swing if true.... but I guess it just means these polls mean nothing.

by Jerome Armstrong on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:48:08 PM EST

It could go either way. Neither fatal for Clinton. (none / 0)

If she wins it's great but is it as important as winning the meaningless(to the Obamanauts) primary in Florida. No way. Florida is going to tell us which way the wind is really blowing as did NH and MI. Obama can win ten NV just as long as she wins FL.

by ottovbvs on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:56:25 PM EST

Re: (none / 0)

If she were to win NV, she would be a prohibitive favorite to win FL as well. It could also help her in SC. On the other hand, if Obama wins NV and SC, it would get tight in FL. NV is not absolutely pivotal for Clinton, but it could set things in motion that would be hard for Obama to combat.

by georgep on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:10:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

George making connection that not there. (none / 0)

NV is NOT IA in national conciousness. The notion of momentum out of IA proved specious in NH and MI and would be doubly so in FL. Most people here are living this which is just not true of most ordinary folks. I know you are Clintonista as I am but I'm being realistic.

by ottovbvs on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:23:58 PM EST
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Re: George making connection that not there. (none / 0)

I would not put money on it myself at any rate, but it is within double-digits. Don't be surprised to see a closer race than you may think today IF clinton gets a couple of points from a potential Nevada win and with the race stuff no longer a big issue. Specifically, I think the current 65% to 20% (or so) of AA voters in SC for Obama is a high water mark and will get closer on election day. We'll see, just a feeling I have that it will be a lot closer than many are thinking today.

by georgep on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:47:47 PM EST
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Re: (none / 0)

georgep, I love you dearly, but BO will win SC-hands down.

by lonnette33 on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 05:44:50 PM EST
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Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

If it were a primary, she'd likely win by a wide margin, but not the culinary caucus. She has little to no chance to win. Caucuses by defintion are set up to limit participation.

formerly bookgirl

by masslib1 on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:11:01 PM EST

Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

Looks like it's in the bag. Congratulations Clinton supporters!

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:14:54 PM EST

Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

Oh, no it is not. I hate polls-let's wait until Saturday.

by lonnette33 on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 05:45:53 PM EST
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Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

Sorry, I insist on awarding you the win. Looks like it might be double-digits!

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 05:48:56 PM EST
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Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

I don't want to jinx Hill.

by lonnette33 on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 05:52:54 PM EST
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Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

Stop being like that.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 06:04:11 PM EST
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Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

Aw, let a guy tease a little bit.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 06:05:01 PM EST
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Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

You seem to do that on a daily basis.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 05:20:50 PM EST
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Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

LOL. In a primary, I think Clinton would win and Edwards would come in second, but come on, these are the culinary caucuses. Obama's a shoe in.

formerly bookgirl

by masslib1 on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 06:54:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Link - no real info other than your 9% number (none / 0)

http://www.lvrj.com/breaking_news/138713 82.html

by dpANDREWS on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:15:47 PM EST

Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

Depends on who did the poll. RJ ususally hires Mason-Dixon, which has not as best I can recall done much polling of a statewide dem primary in recent years. It could also be a poll frome one fo the campaigns or by one of the gamign companies which pay for their own polls and often tend to be slatned in favor of the client. RJ has a bad habit of reporting such polls as if they had seen the methodology.

Anyway, sounds about right to me. I'd predict at this point Clinton wins by about 10 points, Obama another 10 points ahead of Edwards. Based entirely on anecdotal evidence and my extremely solipsistic view of the campaign.

by desmoulins on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:16:06 PM EST

Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

I hope Clinton wins Nevada. It will be a blow to Obama who is is perceived as having the upper hand in the state.

Having said that, I don't trust any poll for a caucus.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:22:10 PM EST

Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (2.00 / 2)

These polls are useless just like the polls in NH were. Its about GOTV and accurately estimating the number of votes that your opponent can master. In Iowa the Obama campaign got it right and in NH they miscalculated. They thought 100,000 votes would give them a win and never thought Hillary could top that number, she did.
In Nevada, its even harder to predict.Will 50,000 votes be enough to win. No one knows. Unless a poll can predict accurate turn out models, its guess work.

by joachim on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:39:56 PM EST

Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

According to desmoulins, Clinton leaves nothing to chance. He himself was contacted via phone multiple times by Clinton backers in a GOTV effort. During that same time span he received not a single call from Obama's team. I think the calculations on how many votes would be enough should be scrapped. Work your behinds off, don't worry about overlap. Shoot for as many people as you can. I think we will see record turnout of women once again come out for Clinton. Obama has the culinary union, but many of their members won't vote for Obama, instead choosing Clinton. It will be interesting, but I like that by all accounts team Clinton is outhustling Obama. That's all I can ask, win or lose.

by georgep on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 06:53:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

I am sure that Clinton will win because she has the party establishment behind her and she was way ahead of the polls by a lot awhile ago.

Still may be hard to determine since this is a caucus.

by puma on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:44:40 PM EST

Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

And another thing. I am sure that Clinton has done her own internal polls. If she was so ahead, I wonder why the Teacher' Union who has Clinton backers in it even bothered to file the lawsuit. All that did was piss off the Culinary workers so that they may vote for Obama.

by puma on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:49:28 PM EST

Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

HRC had nothting to do with that. Please stop it!

by lonnette33 on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 05:54:03 PM EST
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Re: Review Journal: Clinton up 9! (none / 0)

This poll was from today. The action started a week ago. Polls move quickly. I think Clinton might just win NV with hustle, and despite the culinary union's shenanigans.

by georgep on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 06:48:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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